The Article 15 election should be a strategy decision.
Accepting Article 15 may avoid court-martial risk in some cases, but it can also create a damaging record. Demanding trial by court-martial may be appropriate in some cases, but it can increase risk if the evidence supports criminal charges. The decision should be based on evidence, risk, command posture, punishment exposure, and follow-on consequences.
Do not analyze only the immediate punishment.
Article 15 results can later affect administrative separation, officer elimination, promotion, retention, evaluations, and future trust. The response should be built with those risks in mind.